The Matildas 3-2 defeat to Nigeria on Thursday night means that the Aussie team is in a precarious position heading into the final group stage match against Canada. Here’s all you need to know about what needs to happen on Monday night for Australia to secure a place in the Round of 16.
As it stands
The Matildas currently sit on three points in Group B, with Nigeria and Canada above them with four points. The top two teams of every group advance to the Round of 16. This means that as it stands, Australia would be eliminated from the World Cup.
Win against Canada
A win against Canada by any margin would guarantee the Matildas a place in the Round of 16.
If the Republic of Ireland were to defeat Nigeria in the parallel fixture, Tony Gustavsson’s side would finish top of the group. Second place would be decided between Canada and the Super Falcons on goal difference.
A draw between Ireland and Nigeria eliminates Canada, but leaves Australia in top spot on six points. Victory for the Super Falcons would mean that they top of the group on seven points, with the Matildas in second.
Draw against Canada
Sharing the points with Canada would leave Australia relying on Ireland beating Nigeria.
In this scenario, Canada would top the group with five points. Second place would be decided on goal difference between Australia and Nigeria, both on four points.
In order for the Matildas to progress, Ireland would have to defeat Nigeria by two or more goals. Otherwise, Australia would have to score at least one more goal than Nigeria.
If the Super Falcons lost 3-2, for example, the Matildas would need a 3-3 draw to advance. However, if they lost by a two goal margin, goals scored would not matter - Australia would be through on goal difference.
Here’s a pearler. If Ireland were to defeat Nigeria 1-0, and the result between Australia and Canada ended in a scoreless draw, Australia and Nigeria would be equal on both goal difference and goals scored. This means that Nigeria would finish second based on head-to-head record in the tournament against Australia, and would advance at the Matildas expense.
Loss against Canada
If the Olympic Champions walk away from Melbourne with three points, there is no path to the Round of 16 for Australia. Nigeria and Canada would advance to the knock-out stage.
Nigeria would have to defeat Ireland by a larger margin than Canada defeating Australia in order to top the group on goal difference. They currently sit first based on goals scored.