The group stage of a FIFA Women’s World Cup throws up all sorts of permutations. Coaches, fans and pundits alike have calculators on stand-by as they seek to understand what the minutia of every result means for their team’s likelihood of advancing beyond the group stage.
Thanks to Friday's scoreless draw between Canada and Nigeria, the CommBank Matildas are well placed to advance from Group B. Here is all you need to know ahead of the second round of games.
As it stands
The CommBank Matildas currently sit on top of Group B after their 1-0 victory over the Republic of Ireland on Thursday.
Canada and Nigeria sit behind them on one point each, while Ireland are yet to get on the board in their debut global finals.
The second round of games will be crucial to determining the make-up of the group.
Canada v Republic of Ireland
The Republic of Ireland will go to battle with Canada in Perth at 10pm AEST on Wednesday, 26 July. Both teams will feel unlucky to not get more out of their opening game, and both will be feeling capable of walking away with three points.
The best result for the CommBank Matildas would be a draw. That would mean that Tony Gustavsson’s side stay at the summit of Group B.
If Canada win, they will temporarily go top of the group on four points. An Ireland win would put them equal with Australia on three points.
Australia v Nigeria
Regardless of other results, if Australia secure the win against Nigeria, they will be guaranteed passage into the Round of 16. If Canada v Ireland ends in stalemate, the outlook is even better – a win means that the CommBank Matildas would finish top of Group B, irrespective of the result of the final game against Canada.
A draw against Nigeria still leaves Australia in a decent position. At best, the co-hosts would remain top of the group if the points are shared in Perth. However, avoiding defeat in Melbourne would be necessary for the CommBank Matildas to lock down a place in the top two.
A victory for the Super Falcons would leave the group wide open. Australia would be languishing as low as third – Nigeria would be on four points, and Canada could join them with a victory of their own. A place in the Round of 16 would still be possible with a result against Canada, but it would leave the CommBank Matildas in a precarious position, potentially relying on goal difference to see them through.
Assessing all of the different possible outcomes can put anyone's head in a spin. At the end of the day, a win against Nigeria will inoculate the CommBank Matildas from worrying about any complicated permutations in Group B. Tony Gustavsson and his team will be hoping they can get the job done against Brisbane.
FIFA Women's World Cup Australia/ New Zealand 2023™
Australia v Nigeria
Date: Thursday, 27 July 2023
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-Off: 8:00 pm (AEST)
Canada v Australia
Date: Monday, 31 July 2023
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-Off: 8:00 pm (AEST)